It appears that the International Criminal Court (ICC) has already concluded its investigation into the “war on drugs,” with speculations suggesting an arrest warrant might surface in the second quarter of 2024.

Former Senator Antonio Trillanes IV, a reliable source in this matter, has hinted at the imminent developments.

Surprisingly, the Duterte camp’s response to Trillanes’s revelations was not a firm objection but rather a strategic play.

Opting for their usual talking points of preparedness, veiled criticism of the current Marcos administration, and an insincere display of willingness to cooperate, they seem to be navigating a delicate political landscape.

Adding to the intrigue, news broke that former presidential spokesperson Harry Roque is poised to step into a key role as the lead counsel for Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa and former President Rodrigo Duterte if the historic ICC trial proceeds as anticipated.

In a bold move, Dela Rosa called on the president to be transparent about the situation, highlighting a growing trust deficit between the Marcos regime and the Duterte camp as their political differences continue to widen.

Dela Rosa emphasized the need for clarity, stating, “What I’m asking for from this government is to be man enough to please tell us what is the real score. Sabihan lang. Walang problem diyan. Wala naman patalikod na transaksyon” (Just tell us. There’s no problem there. There’s no hidden agenda).

This shift in tone from Dela Rosa indicates a heightened sense of concern, a stark departure from his seemingly unconcerned remarks last year.

The underlying tension suggests that the political rift between the Marcos regime and the Duterte camp is evolving into a trust issue, with implications for their future collaborations.

The stakes are particularly high for Dela Rosa, as he, along with Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio, finds themselves named in documents submitted to the ICC relating to killings during the “war on drugs.”

Duterte-Carpio’s involvement is notably tied to her tenure as the mayor of Davao City, a position she held for a substantial period.

The documents allege that vice president was aware of and sanctioned the killings during her mayoralty, shedding new light on her role in the controversial anti-drug campaign, Vera Files reported last year.

Trillanes corroborated this in his recent interview with CNN Philippines on January 22.

A source familiar with the ICC probe suggested that she might receive a “summons” from the ICC, with the potential issuance of a warrant of arrest if non-compliance ensues, according to Vera Files. .

This revelation marks the first instance of Duterte-Carpio’s name being explicitly mentioned in documents pertinent to the ICC investigation, intensifying the political storm surrounding the Duterte camp.

As the ICC proceedings unfold, the political landscape in the Philippines stands on the precipice of significant change.

Now, the following illustrates how the ICC conducts investigations and subsequently carries out arrests:

The ICC follows a legal process when conducting investigations into alleged crimes committed by leaders. While the specifics can vary based on individual cases, the general process includes the following stages:

1. Preliminary Examination:

• The ICC prosecutor initiates a preliminary examination to determine whether there is a reasonable basis to proceed with a formal investigation.
• This phase involves collecting information, assessing jurisdiction, and evaluating the admissibility of the case.

2. Formal Investigation:

• If the preliminary examination establishes a reasonable basis to proceed, the ICC prosecutor seeks authorization from the Pre-Trial Chamber to conduct a formal investigation.
• During this phase, the prosecutor gathers evidence, interviews witnesses, and builds a case against the accused.

3. Issuance of Arrest Warrants:

• If there is sufficient evidence, the ICC prosecutor may request arrest warrants from the Pre-Trial Chamber. These warrants are issued against individuals accused of committing crimes within the ICC’s jurisdiction.

4. Arrest of the Accused:

• The ICC doesn’t have its own police force, so it relies on the cooperation of member states to execute arrest warrants.
• Member states are obligated to arrest and surrender individuals wanted by the ICC within their territories.

5. Initial Appearance:

• The arrested individuals are brought before the ICC, where they are informed of the charges against them and their rights.
• They may also be asked to enter a plea during this stage.

6. Confirmation of Charges:

• The Pre-Trial Chamber assesses the evidence presented by the prosecutor to determine whether there is enough to proceed to trial.
• If the charges are confirmed, the case moves to the trial phase.

7. Trial:

• The accused are tried before the ICC, and both the prosecution and defense present their cases.
• The trial aims to establish the guilt or innocence of the accused based on the evidence.

8. Appeals:

• Either party can appeal the trial judgment. The Appeals Chamber reviews the decision to ensure fairness and legality.

9. Enforcement of Sentences:

• If the accused is found guilty, the ICC may impose sentences. Member states are responsible for enforcing these sentences.