Tapos na ang confirmation of charges hearing laban kay Rodrigo Duterte sa International Criminal Court noong Feb. 27, 2026, matapos ang apat na araw ng oral arguments at testimonies sa Pre-Trial Chamber I.

Presiding Judge Iulia Motoc, kasama sina Judges Alapini-Gansou at Flores Liera, ang humawak. Duterte mismo ay hindi dumalo; pinayagan ng Chamber ang waiver niya, kaya puro prosecution at defense showdown ang nangyari sa courtroom.

Hindi pa ito trial. Layunin lang ng hearing na malaman kung may “substantial grounds to believe” na may naganap na crimes against humanity. Low threshold, pero high stakes.

Prosecution

Pinangunahan ni ICC Prosecutor Mame Mandiaye Niang, kasama si Julian Nicholls sa closing arguments. Tatlong haligi ang case nila:

1. Widespread at systematic attack mula Davao mayor hanggang presidency (2011–2019).
2. Personal responsibility ni Duterte bilang architect at commander, backed by public speeches at admissions.
3. Mountain of evidence: police data, witness statements, incident reports, at pati Davao CCTV footage.

Sabi nila sa closing: “It is time for Mr. Duterte to take responsibility. He must answer for the dead.” Brutal at direct.

Defense

Nicholas Kaufman nag-chip away. Sabi niya, bawat HVT incident dapat tingnan individually. HVT list daw operational lang, hindi kill list. Child victims? Exaggerated, only Kian delos Santos proven. Paulit-ulit din reklamo sa redactions at limited access sa evidence. Sa climax, nagkwento pa siya ng private convo with Duterte, umalma ang Chamber at Prosecutor.

Victims’ Lawyers

Pinagtuunan nila ang human toll: dehumanization, uninvestigated killings, at culture of impunity. Presidential rhetoric daw naging license to kill.

Next Steps

Nasa deliberation na ang Chamber. May 60 days sila para maglabas ng written decision — target by April 28, 2026.

Posibleng outcome:

• Confirm the charges → tuloy sa full trial.
• Decline → kaso matatapos.
• Adjourn for more evidence → bihira.

Kung confirmed, bagong Trial Chamber ang hahawak ng kaso. Realistic opening ng trial? Late 2027 o 2028. ICC is not TikTok… slow burn pero mabigat.

Our Prediction

High probability, 80–85% na ma-confirm ang charges. Low threshold, arrest warrant na na-issue, at na-reject ang procedural delay. Defense arguments mostly technical; unlikely na mapigilan ang confirmation.

Bottom Line

By late April, malalaman natin kung tuloy sa full ICC trial si Duterte. Ang February hearings? Loading screen pa lang. Real war starts sa trial. Walang speeches, walang applause, walang immunity, just evidence.